Track Record

The Prediction Scorecard.

Every Big Picture column makes one dated, falsifiable call. We keep score in the open. A take you can't be wrong about isn't a take.

The through-line. These calls cluster where our coverage does: what AI is doing to marketing budgets, the jobs that survive on a marketing team, and whether the platforms will ever let you measure any of it. Each call below is dated and falsifiable, so you can hold us to it.

Open calls

Open check by Dec 31, 2027

By December 31, 2027, a majority of B2B companies with 50 or more employees will give their proprietary AI playbook and knowledge base a named owner and a budget line.

Made Jul 29, 2026 in The Capture Economy: Your Team's Judgment Is the Raw Material AI Is Really After
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

By the end of 2027, the marketing teams that can show a real return on AI will overwhelmingly be the ones who spent it on platform-run advertising, not on in-house agents, and in-house agent budgets will be the first line CFOs cut.

Made Jul 15, 2026 in Rent the Algorithm. Own the Audience.
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

No major AI platform (Google, Microsoft, or OpenAI) will expose, inside its own analytics products, whether a brand's presence in an AI answer was paid or earned, before the end of 2027.

Made Jul 23, 2026 in 24% of Search Budgets Now Chase an AI-Search Score the Vendors Can't Pin Down.
Open check by Dec 31, 2027

By the end of 2027, 'reviews and validates AI-generated output' will be an explicit, named responsibility in the majority of senior marketing job descriptions, and a marketer who can't demonstrate that judgment won't be hireable at that level.

Made Jul 28, 2026 in 76% of Marketers Now Spend Their Week Checking the AI's Work. The Auditor Just Became the Marketer.
Open check by Dec 31, 2028

By the end of 2028, the companies that cut junior marketing roles hardest in 2025-2026 will face a visible senior-marketing-talent shortage: longer fill times and a wage premium for experienced marketers who trained before the ladder broke.

Made Jul 29, 2026 in Marketing's Experience Debt: Cut the Juniors Now, Pay for It in 2028